Poll: Feingold Has 11 Percent Lead Over Johnson In U.S. Senate Race

Democrat Russ Feingold has a lead over the Republican incumbent Ron Johnson in the race for one of Wisconsin’s U.S. Senate seats, according to the latest Wisconsin Survey.

Johnson beat then-incumbent Feingold in a “tea party sweep” back in 2010. Feingold now wants his old seat back.

The poll shows Feingold has an 11-percentage point lead over his rival, 51 percent support Feingold while 40 percent back Johnson.

Even though Johnson’s been in office for five years, the poll found that 6 percent of respondents hadn’t heard of him.

St. Norbert College political scientist Charley Jacobs said Johnson might have enough time to inform voters before next November’s election.

“An 11-point spread this early may not mean a whole lot but it’s also, I think, very heartening for the Feingold campaign because you’re already up above half of the voters. You’re well beyond the margin of error in this poll,” he said.

Political Scientist Analyzes Feingold’s Lead

While both men have faced off before, Tim Dale, assistant professor of political science at the University of Wisconsin-La Crosse, said that he thinks this race will be different for several reasons.

“It’s a pretty significant lead, although there are many factors in this face that kind of lead towards Feingold,” he said.

One of those factors is the fact that many people know who Feingold is.

“Most of the time, challenger candidates are working on name recognition this early in the race, and Feingold doesn’t have that issue at all,” Dale said. “These two candidates are well known in Wisconsin, and these polls are going to look more like polls look a little closer to the election where we’re not going to see a lot of undecided voters or voters who don’t have an opinion about either candidate.”

While this election is being touted as an electoral rematch, Dale said it’s a very different race this time around. He said this year’s contest is taking place during a presidential year, which has typically given Democrats a boost in recent decades.

“There are political things going on in the universe that are going to have an impact on this race,” Dale said. “Russ Feingold has done very well in presidential races. In midterm elections, he does worse.”

Both candidates’ narratives will also be very different this time around, he said. In the 2010 election, Johnson campaigned as a Washington, D.C., outsider. Now, after a term in the Senate, he’ll have to answer a new set of questions on the campaign trail.

“Johnson’s going to have to make arguments about what he did while in the Senate that was in favor of the agenda that he brought to the Senate, and also what his plans are going forward,” Dale said.

Feingold is now going to be taking the outsider role in this race, or at least trying to claim it. When it comes to a former incumbent trying to win back an old seat, Dale said these races can turn out one of two ways.

“The candidate can be seen as someone who’s lost, who was ineffective, and is bringing all the baggage of incumbency without any of the advantages,” he said.

On the flip side, time has a funny way of altering the way we think about politicians.

“Typically, the longer that someone is out of politics, the more their approval rating goes up,” Dale said. “People remember good things, and don’t remember as much bad.”

On a national scale, Dale said both parties will have their eyes on the action in Wisconsin, once again putting the state in the center of the political universe.

“This is one of the races where Democrats are going to targeting because they see it as a possible pickup,” Dale said. “Wisconsin is going to be an uphill climb for Republicans, if these poll numbers hold up, but it is certainly is on that list of states that will be closely watched.”

The election takes place on Nov. 8, 2016.

The survey shows Johnson’s approval rating is split with half approving and half disapproving of his job performance.

The survey polled more than 600 state residents over mobile and landline phones from Oct. 14 to Oct. 17. The margin of error was plus or minus 4 percent for the entire poll. For the Democratic primary questions, the margin of error was plus or minus 6 percent.

The survey was conducted by Wisconsin Public Radio, Wisconsin Public Television and the Strategic Research Institute at St. Norbert College.

Stay tuned to Wisconsin Public Radio and WPR.org for continuing coverage.

Credits: Jennifer Hadley/Wisconsin Public Television (Infographic Illustrations); John K. Wilson and Erik Lorenzsonn (Interactive Charts).