Marquette Poll: Walker Has Edge Among Wisconsin Voters In GOP Presidential Race

Governor Has 25 Percent Support With Republican, Republican-Leaning Respondents

By
Michael Vadon (CC-BY-SA)

Gov. Scott Walker has a slight edge in the Republican presidential primary field in Wisconsin, according to a new Marquette University Law School poll — although his lead has slimmed since the spring.

The poll finds Walker polling at 25 percent support among registered Republican voters and independents who “lean Republican.” Trailing him are retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson, polling at 13 percent, and current national frontrunner Donald Trump, polling at 9 percent.

The governor’s lead is not quite outside the poll’s margin of error for the Republican pool, which is plus or minus 6.6 percentage points, indicating his lead isn’t concrete.

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Here’s a chart breaking down the results for the GOP field:

In April, Gov. Scott Walker had a clear lead among the candidates: He had 40 percent support, with Sen. Rand Paul trailing him in a distant second at 10.3 percent. Marquette University Law School’s pollster Charles Franklin described that 15 percent drop in Walker’s poll numbers as “a notable shift” when he unveiled the findings at a press conference Thursday.

Meanwhile, Hillary Rodham Clinton continues to lead in the Democratic presidential field, although her advantage there also seems to have shrunk. Among Democratic voters and independents who lean Democrat, she polled at 44 percent. Bernie Sanders, a senator from Vermont, is polling in second at 32 percent.

Here’s a breakdown of the Democratic field:

The margin of error for the Democratic pool is plus or minus 6.1 percentage points, which indicates that Clinton has a solid lead. However, the spread between Clinton and Sanders does mark a significant change from the April poll’s findings. There, Clinton had 58 percent support and not much in the way of competition.

Other findings from the Marquette University Law School poll:

  • Presidential matchups: In hypothetical election scenarios, the poll found that registered voters would elect Clinton over Walker, 52 percent to 42 percent. Clinton is also projected to beat three other Republican candidates: Trump, 51 to 35 percent; Bush, 47 to 42 percent; and Cruz, 50 to 38 percent.
  • 2016 Senate race: Democrat Russ Feingold is leading incumbent Ron Johnson in the 2016 Senate race, 47 percent to 42 percent. His lead is smaller than it was in the April poll, where he led 54 percent to 38 percent.
  • Governor’s approval: Walker’s approval as governor remains relatively low: He has a favorability rating of 39 percent, with a disapproval rating of 57 percent. In the April poll, his approval rating was 42 percent, and his disapproval rating was 55 percent.
  • Should Walker be running?: A considerable majority of registered voters do not seem to approve of Walker’s choice to run for president: 66 percent are against his White House bid, while 33 percent are for it. However, when only looking at the responses among Republican voters, the numbers become starkly different: 70 percent are for, while 28 percent are against.
  • State of the state: 52 percent of respondents said that the state is heading in the wrong direction, whereas 46 percent said the state is heading in the right direction.

Exactly 802 registered Wisconsin voters participated in the poll, which was conducted between Aug. 13 and Aug. 16 over landline phones.