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Wisconsin’s 2018 Election Outlook Unclear

U.S. Sen. Tammy Baldwin and Gov. Scott Walker Could Both Be Up For Reelection

By
Scott Walker
Gateway Technical College (CC BY-NC-ND 2.0)

With the dust still settling from the last election, political operatives are already looking ahead to Wisconsin’s races for U.S Senate and governor in 2018.

Democratic U.S. Sen. Tammy Baldwin will face her first reelection bid in 2018 and her first test in a statewide midterm election, while Republican Gov. Scott Walker may seek a third term as Wisconsin’s governor.

Jennifer Duffy, a senior editor for The Cook Political Report, said she thinks Wisconsin’s 2018 election will be marked by two competing dynamics. On the one hand, Duffy said the party that carries a state’s presidential race tends to win the state’s U.S. Senate race in the next cycle. With President-elect Donald Trump’s Wisconsin victory in 2016, that would favor Republicans in their bid to oust Baldwin.

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“That said, the other dynamic is the dynamic of midterm elections in which the party in the White House tends to lose seats in the House and the Senate,” Duffy said.

That trend would favor Democrats.

Baldwin won her first race for U.S. Senate in 2012 during a presidential election. The higher turnout in presidential races has traditionally favored Democrats in Wisconsin, although that wasn’t the case last year.

Turnout is typically lower in midterms, and that has strongly favored Republicans. But Duffy said that could change.

“That has been a trend when a Democrat’s been in the White House, but let’s see what happens when it’s a Republican in the White House,” Duffy said. “That seems to affect midterm turnout dynamics as much.”

Right now, The Cook Political Report rank’s Baldwin’s U.S. Senate seat as “likely Democratic.” Duffy said that will change as soon as a Republican challenger formally enters the race. Rep. Sean Duffy is among Republicans said to be considering challenging Baldwin.

Wisconsin’s next race for governor is also in 2018. Walker has hinted that he’ll announce whether he intends to run again after he signs the next state budget. The Cook Political Report currently ranks that race as “lean Republican.”

Several Democrats have shown an interest in challenging Walker, including former State Sen. Tim Cullen, current State Sen. Kathleen Vinehout and State Rep. Dana Wachs.

Duffy said the surprises of the 2016 election show that “these aren’t typical times,” but she said organizations like hers still put stock in long-term election trends like turnout. She said she would be more wary of polls in the 2018 election than she’d been in the past.

“Wisconsin by no means stands alone here, but polling tended to really be off,” Duffy said.

Wisconsin polls consistently showed Democrat Russ Feingold leading Republican Ron Johnson in the 2016 U.S. Senate and Democrat Hillary Clinton leading Republican Donald Trump in the race for the state’s 10 electoral votes. Johnson ultimately beat Feingold and Trump defeated Clinton to become the first Republican to win Wisconsin’s electoral votes since 1984.