U.S. And North Korea To Talk, The Mathematical Odds Of A Perfect March Madness Bracket, When Democracy Is At Risk

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March Madness is upon us and as you put together your bracket, don’t hold out hope that you’ll get it perfect. We talk to a mathematician about why it’s statistically impossible to choose all of the winners correctly. We also talk to an author of a new book who believes that democracy is crumbling as citizens lose faith in their government officials and discuss U.S. and North Korea communications.

Featured in this Show

  • United States Could Have Diplomatic Talks With North Korea

    Diplomatic talks between the United States and North Korea could resume after years of icy relations. The announcement came after a meeting with South Korean officials who informed President Trump that North Korean leader Kim Jong Un wants to meet to discuss denuclearization. White House Press Secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders said at a press briefing that before any meeting can take place, North Korea would need to take some “concrete steps” to show that it’s serious. We speak with Professor Andrew Kidd from the University of Wisconsin-Madison about the news and what the meeting between the United States and North Korea could mean, if it happens.

  • 6 (Unlikely) Things That Are More Likely To Happen Than Picking A Perfect Bracket

    Even though some Wisconsin basketball teams didn’t make it into the NCAA tournament this year, basketball fans across the state filled out March Madness brackets this week.

    But it’s not likely that any of those brackets will be perfect. It’s so unlikely, in fact, that Madison College math instructor Paul Peeders has one word to describe the chances: Ridiculous.

    “Summed up in one word, it’s ridiculous,” Peeders said.

    The annual tradition often comes with cash prizes, or at least bragging rights, in office pools and competitions between friends. But the odds are nearly impossible for getting the entire bracket perfect.

    Peeders said a randomly generated bracket has a one-in-9.2 quintillion chance of predicting the competition perfectly. That’s a nine with 18 zeros. Some statisticians say that goes down to one-in-128 billion with some knowledge about past competition and scheduling.

    Still, not great odds. Here are some things that are more likely to happen than predicting the perfect bracket.


    2018 March Madness bracket. Screenshot from cbssports.com

    Getting killed by a falling coconut

    It’s March, and soon students will flock to beaches across the continent for spring break.

    Peeders said disappointed UW-Madison basketball fans have a one-in-152 million chance of getting fatally wounded by a falling coconut. That’s significantly more likely than picking the perfect, Badger-less bracket this year.

    Hurting yourself with soap

    Most people don’t think of the bathroom as particularly dangerous, but it’s actually more probable that you’ll hurt yourself with soap than pick a perfect bracket this season.

    Way more likely actually, Peeders said. There’s a one-in-11,000 chance of soap injuries, which seems like pretty good odds compared to the daunting statistics around picking the perfect bracket.

    Becoming president

    Even going all the way politically is more likely than going all the way with your bracket. The odds of becoming president are one-in-10 million. Compared to the razor-slim chances of picking the perfect bracket, it might start making sense to contact someone about setting up a super PAC.

    Getting struck by lightning

    Even the most typical example of a slim chance — getting struck by lightning — pales in comparison to picking the perfect bracket. There’s a one-in-700,000 chance of getting struck by lighting, which sounds almost plausible next to the bracket odds.

    Getting struck by lightning while drowning

    Peeders said you can up the stakes significantly and still not bypass the tiny chance of picking a perfect bracket. Even what sounds like the most unlikely way to go — getting struck by lighting while drowning — seems like a real danger compared to picking a perfect March Madness bracket this season.

    So as one of the country’s most iconic sports tournaments gets going, keep these statistics in mind. Peeders summed up the odds for picking the perfect bracket this year pretty simply.

    “It’s near impossible,” Peeders said.

  • The Mathematical Odds Of A Perfect March Madness Bracket

    From die-hard fans to people who don’t really care, filling out a March Madness bracket has become a spring-time tradition. As college basketball teams duke it out to be the best in the country, office workers and friends aim to pick the winners. But, we have some bad news: no matter how knowledgeable you are, the odds of getting your bracket perfect are nearly impossible. We talk to Madison College math instructor Paul Peeders about the math behind the bracket.

Episode Credits

  • Rob Ferrett Host
  • J. Carlisle Larsen Producer
  • Andrew Kydd Guest
  • Paul Peeders Guest

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