What does a government shutdown mean for Wisconsin?

Hours out from the end of the fiscal year, with lawmakers in Congress unable to reach an agreement on how to continue funding the government, Wisconsinites are staring down the possibility of a federal shutdown.

That could affect around 18,000 civilian federal workers in Wisconsin, some of whom will be furloughed and some who will be deemed essential and told to report to work without pay.

While many services will remain in operation — including food assistance, Social Security, the post office and air traffic control — the effects of a shutdown on Wisconsin are hard to predict, says Philip Rocco, a political scientist at Marquette University.

That’s in part because agencies historically offered contingency plans for shutdowns. But not this time.

“Not all of the federal departments have released their contingency plans, and even those that have, it’s not entirely clear how the cuts are going to be spread across the country,” said Rocco.

Federal workers are also facing an unprecedented possibility that the shutdown could be leveraged to fire workers. Last week, the Office of Management and Budget issued a memo directing agencies to plan for eliminating some jobs entirely, rather than enacting furloughs.

“There is a plan that has sort of never been done before, in which the White House is telling federal agencies to prepare for mass firings,” said Rocco.

With that threat on the line, Congress has until midnight to strike a deal on either a short-term or year-long appropriations bill. If they don’t, they will launch the third government shutdown under President Donald Trump.

It’s estimated about 750,000 workers across the country will be furloughed each day a shutdown lasts. The last one Trump oversaw, over the end of 2018 and into 2019, was the longest in history, at 35 days.

Why is this happening?

Lawmakers are at odds over the national budget. While Republicans control both chambers of Congress, they need 60 votes in the Senate to move a budget bill across, which would necessitate some Democratic votes. But Democrats have refused to support the Republican bill because it includes massive cuts to health care.

Wisconsin’s senators are on opposite sides of that political dispute. On Monday, Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin gave a speech defending Affordable Care Act tax credits, which would be cut in the Republican bill.

“The path to keep the government open and stop health care costs from rising for millions is on the table,” she said. “The whole idea of a shutdown is totally avoidable. If Republicans refuse to see what is right in front of them, then a shutdown is on them.”

Her Republican counterpart, Sen. Ron Johnson, a Trump ally, has largely demurred when asked about whether he would seek a compromise with Democrats, instead using his floor time to promote a bill he is championing. That proposal would make government shutdowns all but impossible by maintaining government funding at previous levels when deals are not struck in the Congress.

That’s how the budget process works at the state level in Wisconsin. But in the U.S. Congress, lawmakers can either pass a continuing resolution to keep things afloat for a short period of time, pass a full budget or they can shut down the government.

The process has the attention of state lawmakers, too. Republicans in the Wisconsin Assembly sent a letter to Senate leaders this week urging them to pass a bill to avoid a shutdown.

What stays open?

Programs that are deemed essential will remain in place, according to Rocco, the political scientist.

“Mail will still be delivered. Social Security checks will keep flowing. Emergency responders will remain on duty. Medicare and Medicaid payments will still go out to hospitals,” said Rocco.

Air traffic control and other aviation workers, like TSA agents, still report to work. So do many employees at veterans’ hospitals and other Veterans Administration service providers.

Two federally funded food assistance programs — SNAP, which services low-income people, and WIC, which serves low-income women and children — will continue as usual for now, according to a spokesperson for the Wisconsin Department of Health Services.

People on food assistance, known as FoodShare, will see their October benefits come through as usual, the spokesperson said, and “Wisconsin WIC will remain available at this time.”

“WIC members will be able to use their benefits, attend WIC appointments, and will not need to take any action,” said the spokesperson. “If there are changes to the availability of WIC funding and benefits, we will let WIC members, partners, and providers know immediately.”

That agency also says low-income people who use the public health insurance programs BadgerCare and Medicaid will continue to have coverage.

What happens if the shutdown goes on for a long time?

Disruptions to service can arise as a shutdown proceeds. That’s because many departments have contingency reserve funds to cover costs for certain programs.

But the process for allocating those contingency funds has changed dramatically under the second Trump administration. Typically, these guidance packages are published every few years, but many have not been released this year, or were pulled offline earlier in the year, according to reports.

Without those contingency plans, it’s unclear how every agency will try to cover bases. It’s also unclear how much each agency might have in reserves, or whether and how they would use those.

Additionally, some workers may begin to quit or take sick days in frustration if they must continue to work with no pay. That happened during the long 2018-2019 shutdown, when about a tenth of TSA workers called in sick.

What will pause?

As many federal agencies pause their work, local projects in Wisconsin could be on hold because federal inspections or permitting — say, from the federal Environmental Protection Agency or Housing and Urban Development — will be on hold.

Natural areas that are maintained in large part by the U.S. Forestry Service may not be staffed, which can lead to closures of bathrooms or welcome centers at places like the Chequamegon-Nicolet National Forest in the Northwoods.

While it is still possible to file tax information during this time, much of the IRS will be paused, delaying tax refunds and audits.

According to the University of Wisconsin-Madison, much of the university’s research will continue for the time being, even projects that receive federal funding. But international students and staff may be affected as agencies that oversee passports and visas operate with reduced staffs. Similarly, small business loans and federal research grants will be paused or delayed during a shutdown.

What happens to federal workers?

According to the Congressional Budget Office, an estimated 750,000 federal employees will be furloughed each day of the shutdown. During that time, they will not report to work and will not get paid.

It’s unclear how many of Wisconsin’s 18,000 federal workers will be furloughed and how many will be deemed essential. Furlough designations depend on each agency’s contingency plans and can shift over the lifespan of the shutdown.

And there is some discretion within agencies to use other federal funds or mandatory spending accounts to pay some employees.

Jessica LaPointe represents employees of the Social Security Administration as the president of American Federation of Government Employees Council 220. Most of those workers are expected to continue working, as the delivery of Social Security checks and other responsibilities of the agency are considered essential to public health and safety.

LaPointe’s union includes some 320 workers in Wisconsin. She said there is already a documented morale crisis at the administration, and many field workers live paycheck to paycheck.

“The strain of just heavy workloads, understaffing, and (being) tasked with serving the American people every day under really difficult conditions, is our normal reality,” she said. “And then when you don’t know when you’re going to get your next paycheck, when you have your mortgage come due, or your children need their fees paid for … that’s an added stress that often just sort of breaks the spirit of the civil servants.”

The Office of Management and Budget’s threat of mass firings has also added a weight to negotiations. Democrats argue the memo, which blames their party for the logjam, is an intimidation tactic and an escalation of previous efforts by the administration to reduce the federal workforce. Some Trump allies argue it’s a way to right-size the federal budget.

Carl Houtman is president of the National Federation of Federal Employees Local 276, which represents some forestry workers in Wisconsin, and sits on the Forest Service Council, which covers forestry workers nationally. He said sudden firings would go against required processes.

“This current administration … seems to think that we’ve suddenly become at-will employees, but there are all kinds of protections for federal employees,” he said.

But, he added, lawsuits against other actions the Trump White House has taken against federal workers are taking a long time to resolve. During that time, he said, fired workers still need a paycheck.  

In the shorter term, Houtman said his union is trying to advise workers on how to get by while they’re not being paid. Normally, he said, they don’t recommend workers to file for unemployment, because many will receive backpay after the shutdown ends. That then necessitates paying back the unemployment money, which is a headache.

“But, you know, that’s one of the things that my members know I recommend,” he said. “If you can’t feed your kids, you need to avail yourself of any resource that’s legally available to you.”