November Governor Results 2005

Wisconsin Public Radio & St. Norbert College Survey Center

THE WISCONSIN SURVEY – FALL 2005

GOVERNOR DOYLE APPROVAL AND

GUBERNATORIAL ELECTION MATCH-UPS

FOR RELEASE ON: WEDNESDAY NOV. 16.

Survey Information:

Number of Adult Wisconsin Resident Respondents: 400

Interview Period: October 31 – November 11, 2005

Margin of Error: +/- 5% at the 95% confidence level.

Contact:

Wendy Scattergood

Assistant Professor of Political Science, St. Norbert College Survey Center

DePere, WI 54115

(920) 403-3491

wendy.scattergood@snc.edu

The Approval Rating for Governor Doyle is 64%

How satisfied are you with the way Governor Doyle is doing his job overall. Would you say you are very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied?

Very Satisfied......................................................... 10%

Somewhat Satisfied................................................. 54%

Somewhat Dissatisfied........................................... 20%

Very Dissatisfied.................................................... 13%

Not Sure ................................................................... 3%

Refused..................................................................... 0%

	Fall ‘03	Spring ‘03	Spring ‘05	Fall '05
Very Satisfied	12%	15%	10%	10%
Somewhat Satisfied	53%	53%	52%	54%
Somewhat Dissatisfied	19%	15%	24%	20%
Very Dissatisfied	14%	9%	10%	13%
Not Sure	3%	9%	4%	3%

The Governor’s approval rating has changed little over the course of his term. The differences among all of the ratings are within the error margins for the survey.

Approval ratings for the governor were highly related to party identification. Approval among Democrats was 88% compared to just 40% for Republicans, but 61% of Independents approve of the job the governor is doing as do 58% of those who adhere to other political parties. When party identification is controlled for, other demographic differences in approval of the Governor drop out.

In Governor’s Race Match-Ups, Jim Doyle Leads Over Mark Green by 13% and Over Scott Walker by 15%

If the election for Wisconsin Governor were held today, and the race were between Democrat Jim Doyle and Republican Mark Green as the major party nominees, would you be more likely to vote for Democrat Jim Doyle, Republican Mark Green, or an independent/third party candidate? (ROTATE)

Democrat Jim Doyle 45%

Republican Mark Green 32%

A Third Party or Independent Candidate 10%

Not Sure 13%

Refused <1%

In a different match-up, if the race were between Democrat Jim Doyle and Republican Scott Walker, would you be more likely to vote for Democrat Jim Doyle, Republican Scott Walker, or an independent/third party candidate? (ROTATE)

Democrat Jim Doyle 46%

Republican Scott Walker 31%

Independent/Third Party 9%

Not Sure 14%

Refused <1%

While Jim Doyle leads the Republican contenders by a significant margin, that margin is roughly equal to the percentage of voters who are “note sure” for whom they are going to vote. Also note that these reflect all respondents to the survey. At this very early juncture, we did not ask just “likely voters.”

Obviously the results are partisan in nature, but what is interesting is the “not sure” response differences between the Republican challengers and among the Independents who often are the crucial difference in Wisconsin elections. The two tables below read across, so for example, in the second table, among Independents, 35% said they would vote for Doyle compared to 31% for Walker, while 20% were not sure.

	Doyle	Green	Third Party	Not Sure
Democrats	86%	6%	1%	6%
Republicans	10%	70%	6%	14%
Independents	40%	18%	28%	15%
Other	31%	17%	35%	17%

	Doyle	Walker	Third Party	Not Sure
Democrats	86%	5%	3%	6%
Republicans	13%	63%	6%	18%
Independents	35%	31%	15%	20%
Other	31%	17%	35%	17%

Slightly More Respondents Felt They Would be Better Off (40%) Financially Next Year Than Felt They Would be Worse Off (38%).

Do you expect that at this time NEXT year you will be financially better off than now, or worse off than now?

Better off than now...................................................... 40%

Worse off than now..................................................... 38%

Same (volunteered)...................................................... 18%

Not Sure..................................................................... 4%

Refused / NA.............................................................. <1%

	Better	Same	Worse
Oct-94	50%	31%	15%
Oct-95	46%	21%	26%
Oct-96	56%	19%	15%
Oct-97	54%	25%	14%
Oct-98	56%	21%	17%
Oct-99	63%	15%	20%
Oct-00	64%	20%	9%
Mar-02	54%	22%	15%
Oct-02	56%	13%	22%
Mar-03	53%	17%	26%
Oct-03	57%	14%	22%
Apr-04	57%	19%	16%
Apr-05	42%	25%	29%
Oct-05	40%	18%	38%
Median	55%	20%	19%

As seen in the table and graph above, the percentage of respondents who feel they will be better off next year financially continues to drop and is at an all time low for the survey. Similarly, the percentage of those feeling they will be worse off next year rose significantly over last spring and reflects a high for the survey.