May Survey 2012

The St. Norbert College – Wisconsin Public Radio

Wisconsin Survey – Spring 2012

Survey Information:

Random Selection, Landline and Cell Telephone Survey

Number of Adult Wisconsin Residents: 406

LIKELY VOTERS ONLY

Interview Period: 5/17/2012 – 5/22/2012

Margin of Error: +/- 5% at the 95% confidence level.

Contact:

Wendy Scattergood

Assistant Professor, Political Science

Associate, Strategic Research Institute,

St. Norbert College

(percentages may not add to 100% due to rounding)

If the recall election for governor in Wisconsin were held today, for whom would you vote:

Scott Walker 50%

Tom Barrett ........................................................... 45%

Not Sure ........................................................... 5%

In the 2010 Governors election between Scott Walker and Tom Barrett whom did you vote for:

Scott Walker ........................................................... 52%

Tom Barrett ........................................................... 38%

A Third Party Candidate (VOL)................................ <1%

Don’t Recall (VOL)................................................. 2%

SCOTT WALKER VOTERS ONLY: (open-ended)

What do you think Governor Walker’s greatest success as governor has been so far?

Budget and Deficit/Debt Control............................................ 51%

Collective Bargaining and Unions Control.............................. 21%

Character (e.g., kept promises, standing up to others etc.)...... 11%

Economy and Jobs Improvement........................................... 8%

Other (e.g., getting state back on track, decreasing corruption, etc.,) 5%

Not Sure ........................................................... 2%

TOM BARRETT VOTERS ONLY: (open-ended)

In your view, what is the most important reason why Governor Walker should be removed from office before the end of his term?

Character (dishonest, bully tactics, divisive etc..) .................. 47%

Collective Bargaining and Unions Policies.............................. 26%

Other (effect on local governments, John Doe, environment, etc.,) 9%

Economy and Jobs (didn’t create jobs, not for middle class etc.) 7%

Education Spending Cuts........................................................ 6%

Decreased Rights of Women.................................................. 4%

Not Sure ........................................................... <1%

TOM BARRETT VOTERS ONLY: (open-ended)

What do you think is the most important thing Tom Barrett can bring to the governor’s office?

General Categories:

Character (unifier, honest, experienced, etc.)........... 72%

Reverse Policies (collective bargaining, women’s rights etc.) 11%

Not Walker ........................................................... 6%

Will Create Jobs........................................................ 6%

Other ........................................................... 3%

Not Sure ........................................................... 2%

More Detailed Categories:

Unifier (end divisiveness, compromise, civility, bipartisanship etc.,) 43%

Honesty/Integrity/Return Trust.................................. 18%

Understands/Will Listen to Average person.............. 7%

Not Walker ........................................................... 6%

Will Create Jobs........................................................ 6%

Will Restore Collective Bargaining Rights................. 6%

Experience and Knowledge...................................... 4%

Restore Policies Generally........................................ 2%

Restore Cuts to Education......................................... 2%

Restore Women’s Rights........................................... 2%

Other ........................................................... 3%

Not Sure ........................................................... 2%

ALL RESPONDENTS:

Do you think public employees should or should not have the right to collectively bargain for wages?

Should ....................................................................... 59%

Should Not................................................................. 35%

Not Sure..................................................................... 6%

	Spring 2011	Spring 2012
Should	61%	59%
Should Not	35%	35%
Not Sure	4%	6%

Do you think public employees should or should not have the right to collectively bargain for health and retirement benefits?

Should ....................................................................... 60%

Should Not................................................................. 34%

Not Sure..................................................................... 6%

	Spring 2011	Spring 2012
Should	54%	60%
Should Not	42%	34%
Not Sure	4%	6%

Last year, in the budget debate in Wisconsin, do you feel that the issue of collective bargaining for public employees was more about trying to decrease the budget deficit or more about trying to decrease the power of public sector unions?

Decreasing the Budget Deficit.................................... 38%

Decreasing the Power of Public Sector Unions........... 51%

Not Sure..................................................................... 11%

	Spring 2011	Spring 2012
Decrease Deficit	31%	38%
Decrease Union Power	57%	51%
Not Sure	12%	11%

How much of the time do you think you can trust the state government in Madison to do what is right? Would you say ……

Always....................................................................... 3%

Most of the Time....................................................... 25%

Only some of the Time.............................................. 57%

Never......................................................................... 12%

Not Sure..................................................................... 4%

Now I’d like to ask you about some major political figures and your opinion on how well they are doing their job. For each of the following, please tell me whether you strongly approve, approve, disapprove, or strongly disapprove with the way the person is doing their job or whether you have not heard of them. [ROTATE]

	Strongly Approve	Approve	Disapprove	Strongly Disapprove	Have Not Heard Of	Not Sure
Barack Obama	16%	38%	18%	27%	0%	2%
Scott Walker	31%	21%	12%	36%	0%	1%
Wisconsin State Legislature	4%	38%	32%	12%	1%	14%
US Congress	1%	21%	44%	24%	1%	9%
Wisconsin Supreme Court	2%	41%	31%	6%	1%	20%

Historical Comparisons:

President Obama Approval Ratings:

Sp '09	60%
Fall '09	50%
Sp '10	44%
Fall '10	42%
Sp '11	52%
Fall '11	53%
Sp '12	54%

Congress:

Spring '07	37%
Fall '07	26%
Spring '08	27%
Fall '08	16%
Spring '09	39%
Spring '10	14%
Fall '10	18%
Sp '11	23%
Sp '12	22%

Governor Walker:

Sp '11	46%
Fall '11	38%
Sp '12	52%

WI State Legislature:

Spring ‘03	Fall ‘03	Spring '06	Spring '07	Spring '09	Spring '10	Fall '11	Spring '12
49%	53%	50%	57%	46%	32%	37%	42%

What do you think is the most important issue in this year’s presidential election? (open-ended)

Economy and Jobs 57%

Budget and Deficit 12%

Health Care 6%

Foreign Policy & National Security 3%

Lack of Bipartisanship 3%

Obama (split between get him out and keep him in) 2%

Honesty 1%

Gay Marriage (split pro/con/can’t tell which side) 1%

Need to Listen to the People 1%

Other 9%

Not Sure 3%

Refused 2%

If the presidential election were held today, for whom would you be more likely to vote: (names rotated)

Barack Obama........................................................ 49%

Mitt Romney 43%

Other (VOL).......................................................... 4%

Probably Would Not Vote (VOL)........................... 1%

Not Sure ........................................................... 3%

Generally speaking, would you say that things in the country are going in the right direction, or are they going in the wrong direction?

Right Direction.......................................................... 41%

Wrong Direction........................................................ 50%

Not Sure..................................................................... 9%

Fall '02	47%
Sp '03	36%
Fall '03	41%
Sp '04	32%
Sp '05	40%
Fall '05	29%
Sp '06	24%
Fall '06	30%
Sp '07	21%
Fall '07	22%
Sp '08	18%
Fall '08	8%
Sp '09	41%
Fall '09	38%
Sp '10	38%
Fall '10	37%
Sp '11	25%
Fall '11	23%
Spring '12	41%

Generally speaking, would you say that things in the state of Wisconsin are going in the right direction, or are they going in the wrong direction?

Right Direction.......................................................... 49%

Wrong Direction........................................................ 45%

Not Sure..................................................................... 6%

	Right	Wrong	Not Sure
Sp '03	52%	38%	9%
Fall '03	51%	43%	6%
Sp '04	55%	35%	10%
Sp '09	39%	55%	6%
Sp '11	38%	54%	9%
Fall '11	43%	52%	5%
Spring '12	49%	45%	6%

Compared to a year ago, do you think the national economy has gotten better, stayed the same, or gotten worse?

Better ........................................................... 42%

Same ........................................................... 35%

Worse ........................................................... 22%

Not Sure ........................................................... 2%

	Better	Same	Worse
Fall '04	32%	28%	40%
Fall '06	27%	32%	38%
Fall '08	1%	5%	93%
Sp '10	42%	23%	34%
Fall '10	35%	25%	39%
Sp '11	30%	31%	38%
Fall '11	24%	36%	40%
Spring '12	42%	35%	22%

Compared to a year ago, do you think the state economy has gotten better, stayed the same, or gotten worse?

Better ........................................................... 42%

Same ........................................................... 28%

Worse ........................................................... 30%

Not Sure ........................................................... 1%

	Better	Same	Worse
Sp '11	18%	36%	45%
Fall '11	30%	28%	38%
Sp '12	42%	28%	30%

Compared to a year ago, do you feel that you are financially better off now, or worse off now than a year ago?

Better off now........................................................... 28%

Worse off now........................................................... 44%

Same (volunteered).................................................... 28%

Not Sure..................................................................... 1%

	Better	Same	Worse
Fall '94	38%	34%	28%
Fall '95	36%	31%	32%
Fall '96	47%	26%	25%
Fall '97	47%	28%	25%
Fall '98	45%	30%	25%
Fall '99	55%	23%	21%
Fall '00	57%	23%	19%
Sp '02	35%	28%	36%
Fall '02	31%	18%	50%
Sp '03	36%	20%	43%
Fall '03	37%	24%	38%
Sp '04	41%	26%	32%
Sp '05
Fall '05
Sp '06
Fall '06
Sp '07
Fall '07
Sp '08
Fall '08	20%	20%	60%
Sp '09	20%	16%	63%
Fall '09	21%	25%	53%
Sp '10	28%	23%	47%
Fall '10	29%	32%	39%
Sp '11	25%	31%	44%
Fall '11	28%	19%	53%
Sp '12	28%	28%	44%
Median	36%	26%	39%

Do you expect that at this time NEXT year you will be financially better off than now, or worse off than now?

Better off than now................................................... 54%

Worse off than now................................................... 16%

Same (volunteered).................................................... 18%

Not Sure..................................................................... 13%

	Better	Same	Worse
Fall '94	50%	31%	15%
Fall '95	46%	21%	26%
Fall '96	56%	19%	15%
Fall '97	54%	25%	14%
Fall '98	56%	21%	17%
Fall '99	63%	15%	20%
Fall '00	64%	20%	9%
Sp '02	54%	22%	15%
Fall '02	56%	13%	22%
Sp '03	53%	17%	26%
Fall '03	57%	14%	22%
Sp '04	57%	19%	16%
Sp '05	42%	25%	29%
Fall '05	40%	18%	38%
Sp '06	45%	24%	25%
Fall '06	56%	25%	16%
Sp '07	44%	27%	25%
Fall '07	44%	21%	28%
Sp '08	47%	17%	30%
Fall '08	51%	17%	20%
Sp '09	47%	14%	33%
Fall '09	53%	12%	25%
Sp '10	49%	15%	27%
Fall '10	55%	17%	18%
Sp '11	41%	17%	35%
Fall '11	52%	17%	23%
Sp '12	54%	18%	16%
Median	53%	18%	22%

In 2006, Wisconsin passed an amendment to the state Constitution which states that “only a marriage between one man and one woman shall be valid or recognized as a marriage in this state.” Do you favor or oppose this amendment?

Favor.......................................................................... 56%

Oppose....................................................................... 40%

Not Sure..................................................................... 4%

	Fall 2006	Spring 2012
Favor	51%	56%
Oppose	44%	40%
Not Sure	5%	4%

Do you favor or oppose policies which would grant Legal Protections for Same- Sex Couples such as hospital visitation, family leave, and end-of-life decisions

Favor.......................................................................... 75%

Oppose....................................................................... 22%

Not Sure..................................................................... 3%

	Spring 2006	Spring 2009	Spring 2012
Approve	48%	60%	75%
Disapprove	47%	32%	22%
Not Sure	5%	2%	3%

In the U.S. states use different methods to select members of their state’s Supreme Court. I will read you a brief description of the different methods used. For each one please tell me if you would Favor or Oppose using that method here in Wisconsin to select members to our State Supreme Court. The first selection method is a …..

Method	Favor	Oppose	Not Sure
Partisan Election in which the candidate’s party affiliation is listed on the voting ballot,	59%	38%	4%
Nonpartisan Election in which the candidate’s party affiliation is Not on the Voting ballot	42%	52%	6%
Have the Governor or State Legislature appoint the members to the court	18%	77%	5%
Have a nonpartisan commission nominate qualified candidates and then have the governor selects one of those nominees to serve on the court.	46%	51%	4%

Now I’m going to ask you some questions about the Wisconsin Supreme Court. For the following statements, please tell me whether you strongly agree, somewhat agree, somewhat disagree, or strongly disagree.

	Strongly Agree	Somewhat Agree	Somewhat Disagree	Strongly Disagree	Not Sure
Judges on the Wisconsin Supreme Court who consistently make decisions at odds with the majority of the public should not be reelected to office.	36%	30%	20%	9%	6%
It is more important what the people of Wisconsin think the state Constitution means, than what the Wisconsin Supreme Court thinks it means	25%	25%	29%	13%	8%
It is the proper use of the Wisconsin Supreme Court to decide certain controversial cases such as the legitimacy of the collective bargaining legislation	23%	39%	16%	13%	9%
The Wisconsin Supreme Court ought to be less independent and pay more attention to what the people want	36%	22%	20%	18%	5%
The Wisconsin Supreme Court gets too mixed up in politics	42%	34%	12%	6%	6%