April State Issues 2006

Wisconsin Survey

Spring 2006

Wisconsin Politics

Survey Information:

Number of Adult Wisconsin Resident Respondents: 400

Interview Period: March 29 – April 7, 2006

Margin of Error: +/- 5% at the 95% confidence level.

Contact:

Wendy Scattergood

Assistant Professor of Political Science, St. Norbert College Survey Center

DePere, WI 54115

(920) 403-3491

wendy.scattergood@snc.edu

The Governor’s Race

· Jim Doyle leads Mark Green 43% to 35% respectively

· This is within the error for the survey

· 14% said they were not sure yet for whom they were going to vote

· In another question, 40% of respondents said they had not heard of Mark Green, while this was only true of 2% when asked about Jim Doyle

· For the Libertarian gubernatorial candidate, Roy Leyendecker, 90% said they had not heard of him, while 86% said they had not heard of independent candidate John Murphy

· The Democratic challenger to Doyle, Jeremy Servis, was the least well known; 93% said they had not heard of him

Approval Ratings for the Governor and the State Legislature

· 57% are either “somewhat satisfied” or “very satisfied” with the way the Governor is doing his job

· This is a 7% decrease from last fall, though this statistic is within the error margin for the survey

· 50% are either “somewhat satisfied” or “very satisfied” with the way the state legislature is doing its job.

· This is a 3% drop from the fall of 2003 (again, this statistic is well within the error margins for the survey)

Attorney General’s Race

· Peg Lautenschlager and Kathleen Falk are in a dead heat for the Democratic nomination for Attorney General. Each received 24% support from respondents, while 27% said they were not sure for whom they would vote.

· Among Republican challengers, Paul Bucher has a slight lead (within survey error margins) over J.B. Van Hollen (15% to 6% respectively), with 42% saying they are not sure for whom they would vote.

· In match-ups between Democratic and Republican candidates, the Democrats both are significantly ahead of the Republican challengers.

o Lautenschlager leads Bucher 40% to 27% and Van Hollen 40% to 23%.

o Falk is ahead of Bucher 35% to 25% (this is within the error margin), and leads Van Hollen 37% to 21%.

Most Important Problem Facing the State

· High Taxes was the number one problem facing the state according to respondents (21% mentioned this)

· Economy/Jobs (15%) was next followed by Education (12%) and Health Care (10%).

Personal Financial Outlook

· 45% of respondents feel they will be better off financially next year than they are this year. Nearly equal parts (about 25% each) said they would be the same or worse off next year.

· The percentage feeling they will be better off is an increase of 5% over the fall, but it is still 9% below the median for the history of the survey.

· Peak optimism was in the fall of 2000 where 64% said they felt they would be better off financially in the coming year.

Governor’s Race

Favorability

Please tell me for each one whether you have a favorable or an unfavorable view of the person, or whether you have not heard of them.

	Favorable	Neutral	Unfavorable	Not Heard Of	Not Sure	Refused / NA
Mark Green	29%	11%	14%	40%	6%	0%
Jim Doyle	53%	13%	29%	2%	3%	0%
Jeremy Servis	2%	2%	2%	93%	2%	0%
Roy Leyendecker	4%	2%	2%	90%	2%	0%
John Murphy	5%	3%	3%	86%	3%	<1%

The following percentages reflect the sample with the “not heard of,” “not sure” and “refused” responses removed

	Favorable	Neutral	Unfavorable
Mark Green	54%	21%	25%
Jim Doyle	56%	14%	30%
Jeremy Servis	38%	25%	38%
Roy Leyendecker	47%	25%	28%
John Murphy	44%	28%	28%

Favorability by Party Identification

Jim Doyle

	Favorable	Neutral	Unfavorable	Not Heard Of	Not Sure
Democrats	80%	5%	9%	2%	4%
Republicans	34%	8%	54%	1%	4%
Independents	42%	26%	30%	2%	0%
Other Party	38%	31%	19%	13%	0%

Mark Green

	Favorable	Neutral	Unfavorable	Not Heard Of	Not Sure
Democrats	13%	8%	22%	51%	6%
Republicans	55%	8%	5%	27%	5%
Independents	18%	21%	12%	42%	6%
Other Party	28%	16%	13%	34%	9%

Election Match-up

If the election for Wisconsin Governor were held today, and the race were between Democrat Jim Doyle and Republican Mark Green as the major party nominees, would you be more likely to vote for Democrat Jim Doyle, Republican Mark Green, or an independent/third party candidate? (ROTATE BOLD)

Democrat Jim Doyle 43%

Republican Mark Green 35%

A Third Party or Independent Candidate 6%

I do not plan to vote in the election 3%

Not Sure 14%

Refused <1%

· Among registered voters (92% of the sample), the percentages above do not change except that 2% said they probably will not vote and 13% were not sure.


	Doyle Fall ‘05	Doyle Sp ‘06	Green Fall ‘05	Green Sp ‘06	Third Party Fall ‘05	Third Party Sp ‘06	Not Sure Fall ‘05	Not Sure Sp ‘06
Democrats	86%	82%	6%	7%	1%	3%	6%	7%
Republicans	10%	9%	70%	75%	6%	4%	14%	10%
Independents	40%	33%	18%	23%	28%	17%	15%	23%
Other	31%	19%	17%	28%	35%	13%	17%	38%
All	45%	43%	32%	35%	10%	6%	13%	14%

There were no demographics that were significant in terms of vote choice for the governor’s race, e.g., there were no significant differences between age groups, education levels, income, or gender groups.

Governor Approval Rating

Wisconsin Survey History – Percentage of Respondents Who Are “Very” or “Somewhat Satisfied with the Job the Governor is Doing

How satisfied are you with the way Governor Doyle is doing his job overall. Would you say you are very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied?

	Fall ‘03	Spring ‘03	Spring ‘05	Fall ‘05	Fall ‘06
Very Satisfied	12%	15%	10%	10%	6%
Somewhat Satisfied	53%	53%	52%	54%	51%
Somewhat Dissatisfied	19%	15%	24%	20%	23%
Very Dissatisfied	14%	9%	10%	13%	15%
Not Sure	3%	9%	4%	3%	5%

· For the Spring of 2006, among registered voters, Doyle’s approval rating was 57% (very satisfied and somewhat satisfied added together).

Approval Ratings by Party Identification

	Democrats	Republicans	Independents	Other Party
Very Satisfied	12%	2%	5%	3%
Somewhat Satisfied	67%	37%	41%	63%
Somewhat Dissatisfied	14%	28%	29%	19%
Very Dissatisfied	3%	31%	15%	13%

Demographic variables of age, education, and gender were not significantly related to Doyle approval, i.e., people with different levels of educational achievement did not as groups rate the governor differently. Income was significant, however, when party identification is controlled for, the significance drops out.

State Legislature Approval Rating

	Spring ‘03	Fall ‘03	Spring ‘06
Very Satisfied	6%	3%	2%
Somewhat Satisfied	43%	50%	48%
Somewhat Dissatisfied	25%	29%	30%
Very Dissatisfied	13%	11%	13%
Not Sure	12%	7%	5%

· Among registered voters, approval was 49% (very + somewhat satisfied)

In terms of satisfaction with the state legislature, party identification was not significant, i.e., there were no statistically significant differences in response categories between Democrats, Republicans and others and their satisfaction with for the legislature.

Approval ratings were higher among women than men; 57% of women approved (very + somewhat satisfied) compared to 40% of men. Support for the legislature was highest among the middle education and income levels. Support was highest for those with some college or a technical degree (56% approval) compared to 49% with college degrees and 35% with graduate degrees. Support is highest for those earning between $26,000 and $35,000/year (59%) and drops to 31% for those earning over $100,000/year.

Attorney General’s Race

Favorability

Please tell me for each one whether you have a favorable or an unfavorable view of the person, or whether you have not heard of them.

	Favorable	Neutral	Unfavorable	Not Heard Of	Not Sure	Refused / NA
Kathleen Falk	23%	10%	11%	49%	7%	0%
Peg Lautenschlager	34%	14%	32%	18%	3%	0%
Paul Bucher	15%	7%	8%	67%	4%	0%
J.B. Van Hollen	4%	4%	2%	87%	3%	0%

The following percentages reflect the sample with the “not heard of,” “not sure” and “refused” responses removed

	Favorable	Neutral	Unfavorable
Kathleen Falk	52%	23%	25%
Peg Lautenschlager	43%	17%	40%
Paul Bucher	50%	23%	27%
J.B. Van Hollen	43%	38%	20%

Favorability by Party Identification

Kathleen Falk

	Favorable	Neutral	Unfavorable	Not Heard Of	Not Sure
Democrats	30%	10%	7%	46%	7%
Republicans	19%	8%	19%	50%	5%
Independents	14%	14%	11%	49%	14%
Other Party	22%	3%	3%	63%	9%

Peg Lautenschlager

	Favorable	Neutral	Unfavorable	Not Heard Of	Not Sure
Democrats	47%	10%	21%	18%	5%
Republicans	22%	11%	47%	16%	3%
Independents	30%	21%	32%	17%	0%
Other Party	34%	19%	19%	28%	0%

Paul Bucher

	Favorable	Neutral	Unfavorable	Not Heard Of	Not Sure
Democrats	9%	3%	7%	76%	5%
Republicans	25%	11%	8%	53%	3%
Independents	11%	9%	12%	64%	5%
Other Party	13%	3%	9%	75%	0%

J.B. Van Hollen

	Favorable	Neutral	Unfavorable	Not Heard Of	Not Sure
Democrats	5%	3%	1%	88%	3%
Republicans	7%	3%	1%	86%	4%
Independents	0%	6%	5%	86%	3%
Other Party	0%	6%	3%	91%	0%

Republican Party Primary

There will be a primary election in September to determine the Republican Party’s candidate for Attorney General. If you were to vote in that primary today, which candidate would you be most likely to vote for?

Paul Bucher ........................................................... 15%

J.B. Van Hollen…................................................... 6%

I would vote in another party’s primary ....................... 18%

I do not plan to vote in any party’s primary................... 18%

Not Sure ........................................................... 42%

Refused ........................................................... 1%

	Bucher	Van Hollen	Another Primary	Will Not Vote	Not Sure
Democrats	8%	6%	35%	21%	29%
Republicans	26%	7%	5%	13%	49%
Independents	14%	8%	5%	24%	50%
Other Party	3%	3%	19%	13%	63%
Registered Voters	16%	7%	18%	16%	43%

Democratic Party Primary

There will be a primary election in September to determine the Democratic Party’s candidate for Attorney General. If you were to vote in that primary today, which candidate would you be most likely to vote for? (READ LIST)

Peg Lautenschlager................................................. 24%

Kathleen Falk…...................................................... 24%

I would vote in another party’s primary ....................... 12%

I do not plan to vote in any party’s primary................... 13%

Not Sure ........................................................... 27%

Refused ........................................................... <1%

	Lautenschlager	Falk	Another Primary	Will Not Vote	Not Sure
Democrats	36%	26%	1%	14%	23%
Republicans	10%	26%	30%	13%	19%
Independents	23%	24%	6%	17%	30%
Other Party	19%	9%	6%	3%	63%
Registered Voters	25%	25%	12%	11%	27%

General Election Match-Ups

If the election for Wisconsin Attorney General were held today, and the race were between Democrat Peg Lautenschlager and Republican Paul Bucher as the major party nominees, would you be more likely to vote for Democrat Peg Lautenschlager, Republican Paul Bucher, or an independent/third party candidate?

Democrat Peg Lautenschlager 40%

Republican Paul Bucher 27%

A Third Party or Independent Candidate 5%

I do not plan to vote in the election 6%

Not Sure 22%

Refused 1%

In a different match-up, if the race were between Democrat Peg Lautenschlager and Republican J.B. Van Hollen, would you be more likely to vote for Democrat Peg Lautenschlager, Republican J.B. Van Hollen, or an independent/third party candidate?

Democrat Peg Lautenschlager 40%

Republican J.B. Van Hollen 23%

Independent/Third Party 7%

I do not plan to vote in the election 7%

Not Sure 25%

Refused <1%

If the race were between Democrat Kathleen Falk and Republican Paul Bucher as the major party nominees, would you be more likely to vote for Democrat Kathleen Falk, Republican Paul Bucher, or an independent/third party candidate?

Democrat Kathleen Falk 35%

Republican Paul Bucher 25%

A Third Party or Independent Candidate 6%

I do not plan to vote in the election 6%

Not Sure 29%

Refused <1%

In a different match-up, if the race were between Democrat Kathleen Falk and Republican J.B. Van Hollen, would you be more likely to vote for Democrat Kathleen Falk, Republican J.B. Van Hollen, or an independent/third party candidate?

Democrat Kathleen Falk 37%

Republican J.B. Van Hollen 21%

Independent/Third Party 7%

I do not plan to vote in the election 6%

Not Sure 30%

Refused <1%

Most Important Problem Facing the State of Wisconsin

Please tell me what you feel is the most important problem facing the State of Wisconsin? (Please probe for specifics)

Note: While the percentages may be the same for more than one issue due to rounding, the issues were ranked according to number of responses. For example, while “politics” and “gas prices” had the same percentage due to rounding, “politics” actually had more respondent comments than “gas prices” did.

1. Taxes ................................................................................... 21%

2. Economy & Jobs..................................................................... 15%

3. Education................................................................................ 12%

4. Health Care............................................................................. 10%

5. Government Ethics................................................................... 7%

6. Gas/Energy Prices................................................................... 7%

7. Government Budget & Spending.............................................. 5%

8. Crime ................................................................................... 3%

9. Environment............................................................................ 2%

10. Immigration............................................................................. 2%

11. Other social welfare issues....................................................... 2%

12. Opposed to Gay Marriage ban................................................ 1%

13. Iraq ................................................................................... 1%

14. Racism ................................................................................... 1%

Other (each had less than 1% of respondents)........................ 4%

No Problems/Good................................................................. <1%

Not Sure................................................................................. 6%

Refused/No Opinion................................................................ 1%

	*Taxes & Budget*	*Education*	*Economy & Jobs*	*Health Care*	*Environment*	*Welfare Issues*	Crime/ Drugs	Gas Prices	*Gov't* *Ethics*
*Oct-94*	*21%*	-	7	3	1	21	27	NA	NA
*Oct-95*	*21%*	5	5	5	2	14	15	NA	NA
*Oct-96*	*14%*	7	11	2	1	15	16	NA	NA
*Oct-97*	*18%*	12	5	2	5	10	15	NA	NA
*Oct-98*	*30%*	11	5	2	2	6	7	NA	NA
*Oct-99*	*29%*	20	6	4	3	5	9	NA	NA
*Oct-00*	*26%*	13	13	8	7	5	4	NA	NA
*Mar-02*	*51%*	14	7	1	2	3	1	0	5
*Oct-02*	*49%*	11	13	4	<1	<1	3	0	8
*Mar-03*	*54%*	10	20	4	<1	1	1	<1	2
*Mar-04*	*30%*	9	32	4	1	1	3	<1	4
*Apr-05*	*40%*	15	15	8	3	<1	4	3	2
*Nov-05*	*29%*	9	14	6	3	1	5	6	6
*Mar-06*	*26%*	12	15	10	2	2	3	7	7

Personal Financial Outlook

Do you expect that at this time NEXT year you will be financially better off than now, or worse off than now?

Better off than now...................................................... 45%

Worse off than now...................................................... 25%

Same (volunteered)...................................................... 24%

Not Sure...................................................................... 5%

Refused / NA.............................................................. 0%

	Better	Same	Worse
Oct-94	50%	31%	15%
Oct-95	46%	21%	26%
Oct-96	56%	19%	15%
Oct-97	54%	25%	14%
Oct-98	56%	21%	17%
Oct-99	63%	15%	20%
Oct-00	64%	20%	9%
Mar-02	54%	22%	15%
Oct-02	56%	13%	22%
Mar-03	53%	17%	26%
Oct-03	57%	14%	22%
Apr-04	57%	19%	16%
Apr-05	42%	25%	29%
Oct-05	40%	18%	38%
Apr-06	45%	25%	24%
Median	54%	20%	20%

Wisconsin Survey History – Percentage of Respondents Who Felt They Would Be Better off Financially in the Next Year

	Better	Worse	Same
Democrats	33%	29%	33%
Republicans	63%	17%	17%
Independents	38%	26%	29%
Other Party	44%	28%	16%
Age
18-24	81%	14%	5%
25-34	78%	8%	8%
35-44	57%	22%	16%
45-54	58%	17%	21%
55-64	37%	34%	26%
65+	17%	34%	43%
Education
< High School	10%	60%	20%
High School	38%	27%	27%
Some College /Tech Degree	44%	31%	21%
College Grad	56%	20%	22%
Graduate Degree	50%	12%	31%
Income
<$15,000/year	29%	45%	26%
$15,000-$25,000	30%	38%	24%
$26,000-$35,000	38%	28%	25%
$36,000-$50,000	43%	26%	26%
$51,000-$75,000	53%	22%	24%
$76,000-$100,000	55%	17%	29%
>$100,000	75%	6%	17%