Wisconsin Survey

Spring 2006

Wisconsin Politics

 

Survey Information:

 

Number of Adult Wisconsin Resident Respondents:  400

Interview Period: March 29 – April 7, 2006

Margin of Error: +/- 5% at the 95% confidence level.

 

Contact:

Wendy Scattergood

Assistant Professor of Political Science, St. Norbert College Survey Center

DePere, WI 54115

(920) 403-3491

wendy.scattergood@snc.edu

 

 

The Governor’s Race

·        Jim Doyle leads Mark Green 43% to 35% respectively  

·        This is within the error for the survey

·        14% said they were not sure yet for whom they were going to vote

·        In another question, 40% of respondents said they had not heard of Mark Green, while this was only true of 2% when asked about Jim Doyle

·        For the Libertarian gubernatorial candidate, Roy Leyendecker, 90% said they had not heard of him, while 86% said they had not heard of independent candidate John Murphy

·        The Democratic challenger to Doyle, Jeremy Servis, was the least well known; 93% said they had not heard of him

 

 

Approval Ratings for the Governor and the State Legislature

·        57% are either “somewhat satisfied” or “very satisfied” with the way the Governor is doing his job

·        This is a 7% decrease from last fall, though this statistic is within the error margin for the survey

·        50% are either “somewhat satisfied” or “very satisfied” with the way the state legislature is doing its job.

·        This is a 3% drop from the fall of 2003 (again, this statistic is well  within the error margins for the survey)

 

 

 

Attorney General’s Race

·        Peg Lautenschlager and Kathleen Falk are in a dead heat for the Democratic nomination for Attorney General. Each received 24% support from respondents, while 27% said they were not sure for whom they would vote.

·        Among Republican challengers, Paul Bucher has a slight lead (within survey error margins) over J.B. Van Hollen (15% to 6% respectively), with 42% saying they are not sure for whom they would vote.

·        In match-ups between Democratic and Republican candidates, the Democrats both are significantly ahead of the Republican challengers.

o       Lautenschlager leads Bucher 40% to 27% and Van Hollen 40% to 23%.

o       Falk is ahead of Bucher 35% to 25% (this is within the error margin), and leads Van Hollen 37% to 21%.

 

 

Most Important Problem Facing the State

·        High Taxes was the number one problem facing the state according to respondents (21% mentioned this)

·        Economy/Jobs (15%) was next followed by Education (12%) and Health Care (10%).

 

 

Personal Financial Outlook

·        45% of respondents feel they will be better off financially next year than they are this year. Nearly equal parts (about 25% each) said they would be the same or worse off next year.

·        The percentage feeling they will be better off is an increase of 5% over the fall, but it is still 9% below the median for the history of the survey.

·        Peak optimism was in the fall of 2000 where 64% said they felt they would be better off financially in the coming year.

 


Governor’s Race

 

 

Favorability

 

Please tell me for each one whether you have a favorable or an unfavorable view of the person, or whether you have not heard of them.

 

Favorable

Neutral

Unfavorable

Not Heard Of

Not Sure

Refused

/ NA

Mark Green

29%

11%

14%

40%

6%

0%

Jim Doyle

53%

13%

29%

2%

3%

0%

Jeremy Servis

2%

2%

2%

93%

2%

0%

Roy Leyendecker

4%

2%

2%

90%

2%

0%

John Murphy

5%

3%

3%

86%

3%

<1%

 

 

 

The following percentages reflect the sample with the “not heard of,” “not sure” and “refused” responses removed

 

Favorable

Neutral

Unfavorable

Mark Green

54%

21%

25%

Jim Doyle

56%

14%

30%

Jeremy Servis

38%

25%

38%

Roy Leyendecker

47%

25%

28%

John Murphy

44%

28%

28%

 

 

 

Favorability by Party Identification

 

Jim Doyle

 

Favorable

Neutral

Unfavorable

Not Heard Of

Not Sure

Democrats

80%

5%

9%

2%

4%

Republicans

34%

8%

54%

1%

4%

Independents

42%

26%

30%

2%

0%

Other Party

38%

31%

19%

13%

0%

 

Mark Green

 

Favorable

Neutral

Unfavorable

Not Heard Of

Not Sure

Democrats

13%

8%

22%

51%

6%

Republicans

55%

8%

5%

27%

5%

Independents

18%

21%

12%

42%

6%

Other Party

28%

16%

13%

34%

9%


Election Match-up

 

 

If the election for Wisconsin Governor were held today, and the race were between Democrat Jim Doyle and Republican Mark Green as the major party nominees, would you be more likely to vote for Democrat Jim Doyle, Republican Mark Green, or an independent/third party candidate?  (ROTATE BOLD)

 

                                                Democrat Jim Doyle                                       43%

                                                Republican Mark Green                                35%

                                                A Third Party or Independent Candidate      6%

                                                I do not plan to vote in the election                      3%

                                                Not Sure                                                           14%

                                                Refused                                                            <1%

·        Among registered voters (92% of the sample), the percentages above do not change except that 2% said they probably will not vote and 13% were not sure.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Doyle Fall ‘05

Doyle Sp ‘06

Green Fall ‘05

Green Sp ‘06

Third Party Fall ‘05

Third Party Sp ‘06

Not Sure Fall ‘05

Not Sure Sp ‘06

Democrats

86%

82%

6%

7%

1%

3%

6%

7%

Republicans

10%

9%

70%

75%

6%

4%

14%