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Spring 2006 Survey Information: Number of Adult Interview Period: March 29 –
April 7, 2006 Margin of Error: +/- 5% at
the 95% confidence level. Contact: Wendy
Scattergood Assistant
Professor of Political Science, St. Norbert College Survey Center DePere, WI 54115 (920)
403-3491 The Governor’s Race ·
Jim Doyle leads
Mark Green 43% to 35% respectively ·
This is within
the error for the survey ·
14% said they
were not sure yet for whom they were going to vote ·
In another
question, 40% of respondents said they had not heard of Mark Green, while this
was only true of 2% when asked about Jim Doyle ·
For the
Libertarian gubernatorial candidate, Roy Leyendecker,
90% said they had not heard of him, while 86% said they had not heard of
independent candidate John Murphy ·
The Democratic
challenger to Doyle, Jeremy Servis, was the least well known; 93% said they had not heard of him Approval Ratings for the Governor and the State
Legislature ·
57% are either
“somewhat satisfied” or “very satisfied” with the way the Governor is doing his
job ·
This is a 7%
decrease from last fall, though this statistic is within the error margin for
the survey ·
50% are either
“somewhat satisfied” or “very satisfied” with the way the state legislature is
doing its job. ·
This is a 3% drop
from the fall of 2003 (again, this statistic is well within the error margins for the survey) Attorney General’s Race ·
Peg Lautenschlager and Kathleen Falk are in a dead heat for the
Democratic nomination for Attorney General. Each received 24% support from respondents,
while 27% said they were not sure for whom they would vote. ·
Among Republican
challengers, Paul Bucher has a slight lead (within survey error margins) over
J.B. Van Hollen (15% to 6% respectively), with 42%
saying they are not sure for whom they would vote. ·
In match-ups
between Democratic and Republican candidates, the Democrats both are
significantly ahead of the Republican challengers. o
Lautenschlager leads Bucher 40% to 27% and Van Hollen
40% to 23%. o
Falk is ahead of
Bucher 35% to 25% (this is within the error margin), and leads Van Hollen 37% to 21%. Most Important Problem Facing the State ·
High Taxes was
the number one problem facing the state according to respondents (21% mentioned
this) ·
Economy/Jobs (15%)
was next followed by Education (12%) and Health Care
(10%). Personal Financial Outlook ·
45% of
respondents feel they will be better off financially next year than they are
this year. Nearly equal parts (about 25% each) said they would be the same or
worse off next year. ·
The percentage
feeling they will be better off is an increase of 5% over the fall, but it is
still 9% below the median for the history of the survey. ·
Peak optimism was
in the fall of 2000 where 64% said they felt they would be better off
financially in the coming year. Governor’s Race Favorability
Please
tell me for each one whether you have a favorable or an unfavorable view of the
person, or whether you have not heard of them.
The following percentages reflect the sample with the “not heard of,”
“not sure” and “refused” responses removed
Favorability
by Party Identification Jim Doyle
Mark Green
Election
Match-up If the election for Wisconsin Governor were held today, and the race
were between Democrat Jim Doyle and Republican Mark Green as the major party
nominees, would you be more likely to vote for Democrat Jim Doyle, Republican
Mark Green, or an independent/third party candidate? (ROTATE
BOLD) Democrat Jim Doyle 43% Republican
Mark Green 35% A
Third Party or Independent Candidate 6% I
do not plan to vote in the election 3% Not
Sure 14% Refused <1% ·
Among registered voters (92% of the sample), the
percentages above do not change except that 2% said they probably will not vote
and 13% were not sure.
There were no demographics that were significant in
terms of vote choice for the governor’s race, e.g., there were no significant
differences between age groups, education levels, income, or gender groups.
How satisfied are you with the way Governor Doyle is doing his job
overall. Would you say you are very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat
dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied?
·
For the Spring of 2006, among
registered voters, Doyle’s approval rating was 57% (very satisfied and somewhat
satisfied added together). Approval
Ratings by Party Identification
Demographic variables of age, education, and gender
were not significantly related to Doyle approval, i.e., people with different
levels of educational achievement did not as groups
rate the governor differently. Income was significant, however, when party
identification is controlled for, the significance drops out. State Legislature Approval Rating
·
Among registered voters, approval was 49%
(very + somewhat satisfied) In terms of satisfaction with
the state legislature, party identification was not significant, i.e., there
were no statistically significant differences in response categories between
Democrats, Republicans and others and their satisfaction with for the
legislature. Approval ratings were higher
among women than men; 57% of women approved (very + somewhat satisfied)
compared to 40% of men. Support for the legislature was highest among the
middle education and income levels. Support was highest for those with some
college or a technical degree (56% approval) compared to 49% with college
degrees and 35% with graduate degrees. Support is highest for those earning
between $26,000 and $35,000/year (59%) and drops to 31% for those earning over
$100,000/year. Attorney General’s Race Favorability Please tell me for each one whether you have a favorable or an
unfavorable view of the person, or whether you have not heard of them.
The following percentages reflect the sample with the “not heard of,”
“not sure” and “refused” responses removed
Favorability
by Party Identification Kathleen Falk
Peg Lautenschlager
Paul Bucher
J.B. Van Hollen
Republican
Party Primary There will be a
primary election in September to determine the Republican Party’s candidate for
Attorney General. If you were to vote in that primary today, which candidate
would you be most likely to vote for? Paul
Bucher ........................................................... 15% J.B. Van
Hollen…................................................... 6% I would vote in another party’s primary ....................... 18% I do not plan to vote in any party’s
primary................... 18% Not Sure ........................................................... 42% Refused ........................................................... 1%
Democratic
Party Primary There will be a
primary election in September to determine the Democratic Party’s candidate for
Attorney General. If you were to vote in that primary today, which candidate
would you be most likely to vote for? (READ LIST) Peg Lautenschlager................................................. 24% Kathleen
Falk…...................................................... 24% I would vote in another party’s primary ....................... 12% I do not plan to vote in any party’s
primary................... 13% Not Sure ........................................................... 27% Refused ........................................................... <1%
General
Election Match-Ups If the election for Wisconsin Attorney General were held today, and the
race were between Democrat Peg Lautenschlager and
Republican Paul Bucher as the major party nominees, would you be more likely to
vote for Democrat Peg Lautenschlager, Republican Paul
Bucher, or an independent/third party candidate? Democrat Peg Lautenschlager 40% Republican Paul Bucher 27% A Third Party or Independent
Candidate 5% I
do not plan to vote in the election 6% Not
Sure 22% Refused 1% In a different match-up, if the race were between Democrat Peg Lautenschlager and Republican J.B. Van Hollen,
would you be more likely to vote for Democrat Peg Lautenschlager,
Republican J.B. Van Hollen, or an independent/third
party candidate? Democrat Peg Lautenschlager 40% Republican J.B. Van Hollen 23% Independent/Third Party 7% I
do not plan to vote in the election 7% Not
Sure 25% Refused <1% If the race were between Democrat Kathleen Falk and Republican Paul
Bucher as the major party nominees, would you be more likely to vote for
Democrat Kathleen Falk, Republican Paul Bucher, or an independent/third party
candidate? Democrat Kathleen Falk 35% Republican Paul Bucher 25% A Third Party or Independent Candidate 6% I do not plan to
vote in the election 6% Not Sure 29% Refused <1% In a different match-up, if the race were between Democrat Kathleen
Falk and Republican J.B. Van Hollen, would you be
more likely to vote for Democrat Kathleen Falk, Republican J.B. Van Hollen, or an independent/third party candidate? Democrat Kathleen Falk 37% Republican J.B. Van Hollen 21% Independent/Third Party 7% I do not plan to
vote in the election 6% Not Sure 30% Refused <1% Most Important Problem Facing the State of Please tell me what you feel
is the most important problem facing the State
of Wisconsin? (Please probe for specifics) Note: While
the percentages may be the same for more than one issue due to rounding, the
issues were ranked according to number of responses. For example, while
“politics” and “gas prices” had the same percentage due to rounding, “politics”
actually had more respondent comments than “gas prices” did. 1. Taxes ................................................................................... 21% 2. Economy & Jobs..................................................................... 15% 3. Education................................................................................ 12% 4. Health Care............................................................................. 10% 5. Government Ethics................................................................... 7% 6. Gas/Energy Prices................................................................... 7% 7. Government Budget & Spending.............................................. 5% 8. Crime ................................................................................... 3% 9. Environment............................................................................ 2% 10. Immigration............................................................................. 2% 11. Other social welfare issues....................................................... 2% 12. Opposed to Gay Marriage ban................................................ 1% 13. 14. Racism ................................................................................... 1% Other (each had less than 1% of respondents)........................ 4% No Problems/Good................................................................. <1% Not Sure................................................................................. 6% Refused/No Opinion................................................................ 1%
Personal Financial Outlook Do you expect that at this time NEXT
year you will be financially better off than now, or worse off than now? Better off
than now...................................................... 45% Worse off
than now...................................................... 25% Same
(volunteered)...................................................... 24% Not Sure...................................................................... 5% Refused /
NA.............................................................. 0%
Wisconsin
Survey History – Percentage of Respondents Who Felt They Would Be Better off Financially
in the Next Year
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