Wisconsin Survey

Spring 2006

Wisconsin Politics

 

Survey Information:

 

Number of Adult Wisconsin Resident Respondents:  400

Interview Period: March 29 – April 7, 2006

Margin of Error: +/- 5% at the 95% confidence level.

 

Contact:

Wendy Scattergood

Assistant Professor of Political Science, St. Norbert College Survey Center

DePere, WI 54115

(920) 403-3491

wendy.scattergood@snc.edu

 

 

The Governor’s Race

·        Jim Doyle leads Mark Green 43% to 35% respectively  

·        This is within the error for the survey

·        14% said they were not sure yet for whom they were going to vote

·        In another question, 40% of respondents said they had not heard of Mark Green, while this was only true of 2% when asked about Jim Doyle

·        For the Libertarian gubernatorial candidate, Roy Leyendecker, 90% said they had not heard of him, while 86% said they had not heard of independent candidate John Murphy

·        The Democratic challenger to Doyle, Jeremy Servis, was the least well known; 93% said they had not heard of him

 

 

Approval Ratings for the Governor and the State Legislature

·        57% are either “somewhat satisfied” or “very satisfied” with the way the Governor is doing his job

·        This is a 7% decrease from last fall, though this statistic is within the error margin for the survey

·        50% are either “somewhat satisfied” or “very satisfied” with the way the state legislature is doing its job.

·        This is a 3% drop from the fall of 2003 (again, this statistic is well  within the error margins for the survey)

 

 

 

Attorney General’s Race

·        Peg Lautenschlager and Kathleen Falk are in a dead heat for the Democratic nomination for Attorney General. Each received 24% support from respondents, while 27% said they were not sure for whom they would vote.

·        Among Republican challengers, Paul Bucher has a slight lead (within survey error margins) over J.B. Van Hollen (15% to 6% respectively), with 42% saying they are not sure for whom they would vote.

·        In match-ups between Democratic and Republican candidates, the Democrats both are significantly ahead of the Republican challengers.

o       Lautenschlager leads Bucher 40% to 27% and Van Hollen 40% to 23%.

o       Falk is ahead of Bucher 35% to 25% (this is within the error margin), and leads Van Hollen 37% to 21%.

 

 

Most Important Problem Facing the State

·        High Taxes was the number one problem facing the state according to respondents (21% mentioned this)

·        Economy/Jobs (15%) was next followed by Education (12%) and Health Care (10%).

 

 

Personal Financial Outlook

·        45% of respondents feel they will be better off financially next year than they are this year. Nearly equal parts (about 25% each) said they would be the same or worse off next year.

·        The percentage feeling they will be better off is an increase of 5% over the fall, but it is still 9% below the median for the history of the survey.

·        Peak optimism was in the fall of 2000 where 64% said they felt they would be better off financially in the coming year.

 


Governor’s Race

 

 

Favorability

 

Please tell me for each one whether you have a favorable or an unfavorable view of the person, or whether you have not heard of them.

 

Favorable

Neutral

Unfavorable

Not Heard Of

Not Sure

Refused

/ NA

Mark Green

29%

11%

14%

40%

6%

0%

Jim Doyle

53%

13%

29%

2%

3%

0%

Jeremy Servis

2%

2%

2%

93%

2%

0%

Roy Leyendecker

4%

2%

2%

90%

2%

0%

John Murphy

5%

3%

3%

86%

3%

<1%

 

 

 

The following percentages reflect the sample with the “not heard of,” “not sure” and “refused” responses removed

 

Favorable

Neutral

Unfavorable

Mark Green

54%

21%

25%

Jim Doyle

56%

14%

30%

Jeremy Servis

38%

25%

38%

Roy Leyendecker

47%

25%

28%

John Murphy

44%

28%

28%

 

 

 

Favorability by Party Identification

 

Jim Doyle

 

Favorable

Neutral

Unfavorable

Not Heard Of

Not Sure

Democrats

80%

5%

9%

2%

4%

Republicans

34%

8%

54%

1%

4%

Independents

42%

26%

30%

2%

0%

Other Party

38%

31%

19%

13%

0%

 

Mark Green

 

Favorable

Neutral

Unfavorable

Not Heard Of

Not Sure

Democrats

13%

8%

22%

51%

6%

Republicans

55%

8%

5%

27%

5%

Independents

18%

21%

12%

42%

6%

Other Party

28%

16%

13%

34%

9%


Election Match-up

 

 

If the election for Wisconsin Governor were held today, and the race were between Democrat Jim Doyle and Republican Mark Green as the major party nominees, would you be more likely to vote for Democrat Jim Doyle, Republican Mark Green, or an independent/third party candidate?  (ROTATE BOLD)

 

                                                Democrat Jim Doyle                                       43%

                                                Republican Mark Green                                35%

                                                A Third Party or Independent Candidate      6%

                                                I do not plan to vote in the election                      3%

                                                Not Sure                                                           14%

                                                Refused                                                            <1%

·        Among registered voters (92% of the sample), the percentages above do not change except that 2% said they probably will not vote and 13% were not sure.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Doyle Fall ‘05

Doyle Sp ‘06

Green Fall ‘05

Green Sp ‘06

Third Party Fall ‘05

Third Party Sp ‘06

Not Sure Fall ‘05

Not Sure Sp ‘06

Democrats

86%

82%

6%

7%

1%

3%

6%

7%

Republicans

10%

9%

70%

75%

6%

4%

14%

10%

Independents

40%

33%

18%

23%

28%

17%

15%

23%

Other

31%

19%

17%

28%

35%

13%

17%

38%

All

45%

43%

32%

35%

10%

6%

13%

14%

 

There were no demographics that were significant in terms of vote choice for the governor’s race, e.g., there were no significant differences between age groups, education levels, income, or gender groups.
Governor Approval Rating

 

Wisconsin Survey History – Percentage of Respondents Who Are “Very” or “Somewhat Satisfied with the Job the Governor is Doing

 

 

How satisfied are you with the way Governor Doyle is doing his job overall. Would you say you are very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied?

 

Fall ‘03

Spring ‘03

Spring ‘05

Fall ‘05

Fall ‘06

Very Satisfied

12%

15%

10%

10%

6%

Somewhat Satisfied

53%

53%

52%

54%

51%

Somewhat Dissatisfied

19%

15%

24%

20%

23%

Very Dissatisfied

14%

9%

10%

13%

15%

Not Sure

3%

9%

4%

3%

5%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

·        For the Spring of 2006, among registered voters, Doyle’s approval rating was 57% (very satisfied and somewhat satisfied added together).

 

 

Approval Ratings by Party Identification

 

 

Democrats

Republicans

Independents

Other Party

Very Satisfied

12%

2%

5%

3%

Somewhat Satisfied

67%

37%

41%

63%

Somewhat Dissatisfied

14%

28%

29%

19%

Very Dissatisfied

3%

31%

15%

13%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Demographic variables of age, education, and gender were not significantly related to Doyle approval, i.e., people with different levels of educational achievement did not as groups rate the governor differently. Income was significant, however, when party identification is controlled for, the significance drops out.

 

 


State Legislature Approval Rating

 

 

 

 

Spring ‘03

Fall ‘03

Spring ‘06

Very Satisfied

6%

3%

2%

Somewhat Satisfied

43%

50%

48%

Somewhat Dissatisfied

25%

29%

30%

Very Dissatisfied

13%

11%

13%

Not Sure

12%

7%

5%

 

 

·        Among registered voters, approval was 49% (very + somewhat satisfied)

 

 

In terms of satisfaction with the state legislature, party identification was not significant, i.e., there were no statistically significant differences in response categories between Democrats, Republicans and others and their satisfaction with for the legislature.

 

Approval ratings were higher among women than men; 57% of women approved (very + somewhat satisfied) compared to 40% of men. Support for the legislature was highest among the middle education and income levels. Support was highest for those with some college or a technical degree (56% approval) compared to 49% with college degrees and 35% with graduate degrees. Support is highest for those earning between $26,000 and $35,000/year (59%) and drops to 31% for those earning over $100,000/year.


Attorney General’s Race

 

Favorability

 

Please tell me for each one whether you have a favorable or an unfavorable view of the person, or whether you have not heard of them.

 

Favorable

Neutral

Unfavorable

Not Heard Of

Not Sure

Refused

/ NA

Kathleen Falk

23%

10%

11%

49%

7%

0%

Peg Lautenschlager

34%

14%

32%

18%

3%

0%

Paul Bucher

15%

7%

8%

67%

4%

0%

J.B. Van Hollen

4%

4%

2%

87%

3%

0%

 

 

The following percentages reflect the sample with the “not heard of,” “not sure” and “refused” responses removed

 

Favorable

Neutral

Unfavorable

Kathleen Falk

52%

23%

25%

Peg Lautenschlager

43%

17%

40%

Paul Bucher

50%

23%

27%

J.B. Van Hollen

43%

38%

20%

 

 

 

Favorability by Party Identification

Kathleen Falk

 

Favorable

Neutral

Unfavorable

Not Heard Of

Not Sure

Democrats

30%

10%

7%

46%

7%

Republicans

19%

8%

19%

50%

5%

Independents

14%

14%

11%

49%

14%

Other Party

22%

3%

3%

63%

9%

 

Peg Lautenschlager

 

Favorable

Neutral

Unfavorable

Not Heard Of

Not Sure

Democrats

47%

10%

21%

18%

5%

Republicans

22%

11%

47%

16%

3%

Independents

30%

21%

32%

17%

0%

Other Party

34%

19%

19%

28%

0%

 

 

Paul Bucher

 

Favorable

Neutral

Unfavorable

Not Heard Of

Not Sure

Democrats

9%

3%

7%

76%

5%

Republicans

25%

11%

8%

53%

3%

Independents

11%

9%

12%

64%

5%

Other Party

13%

3%

9%

75%

0%

 

J.B. Van Hollen

 

Favorable

Neutral

Unfavorable

Not Heard Of

Not Sure

Democrats

5%

3%

1%

88%

3%

Republicans

7%

3%

1%

86%

4%

Independents

0%

6%

5%

86%

3%

Other Party

0%

6%

3%

91%

0%

 

 

 

 

Republican Party Primary

There will be a primary election in September to determine the Republican Party’s candidate for Attorney General. If you were to vote in that primary today, which candidate would you be most likely to vote for?

 

                          Paul Bucher  ........................................................... 15%

                          J.B. Van Hollen................................................... 6%

                          I would vote in another party’s primary ....................... 18%

                          I do not plan to vote in any party’s primary................... 18%

                          Not Sure         ........................................................... 42%

                          Refused          ........................................................... 1%

 

 

Bucher

Van Hollen

Another Primary

Will Not Vote

Not Sure

Democrats

8%

6%

35%

21%

29%

Republicans

26%

7%

5%

13%

49%

Independents

14%

8%

5%

24%

50%

Other Party

3%

3%

19%

13%

63%

Registered Voters

16%

7%

18%

16%

43%

 

 

Democratic Party Primary

 

There will be a primary election in September to determine the Democratic Party’s candidate for Attorney General. If you were to vote in that primary today, which candidate would you be most likely to vote for? (READ LIST)

 

                          Peg Lautenschlager................................................. 24%

                          Kathleen Falk…...................................................... 24%

                          I would vote in another party’s primary ....................... 12%

                          I do not plan to vote in any party’s primary................... 13%

                          Not Sure         ........................................................... 27%

                          Refused          ........................................................... <1%

 

 

Lautenschlager

Falk

Another Primary

Will Not Vote

Not Sure

Democrats

36%

26%

1%

14%

23%

Republicans

10%

26%

30%

13%

19%

Independents

23%

24%

6%

17%

30%

Other Party

19%

9%

6%

3%

63%

Registered Voters

25%

25%

12%

11%

27%

 

 

 

General Election Match-Ups

 

If the election for Wisconsin Attorney General were held today, and the race were between Democrat Peg Lautenschlager and Republican Paul Bucher as the major party nominees, would you be more likely to vote for Democrat Peg Lautenschlager, Republican Paul Bucher, or an independent/third party candidate?

 

            Democrat Peg Lautenschlager                                   40%

            Republican Paul Bucher                                 27%

            A Third Party or Independent Candidate      5%

            I do not plan to vote in the election                      6%

            Not Sure                                                           22%

            Refused                                                            1%

 

 

 

In a different match-up, if the race were between Democrat Peg Lautenschlager and Republican J.B. Van Hollen, would you be more likely to vote for Democrat Peg Lautenschlager, Republican J.B. Van Hollen, or an independent/third party candidate?

 

                        Democrat Peg Lautenschlager                                   40%

                        Republican J.B. Van Hollen                           23%

                        Independent/Third Party                                7%

                        I do not plan to vote in the election                      7%

                        Not Sure                                                           25%

                        Refused                                                            <1%

 

 

If the race were between Democrat Kathleen Falk and Republican Paul Bucher as the major party nominees, would you be more likely to vote for Democrat Kathleen Falk, Republican Paul Bucher, or an independent/third party candidate?

 

                  Democrat Kathleen Falk                                35%

                  Republican Paul Bucher                                 25%

                  A Third Party or Independent Candidate      6%

                  I do not plan to vote in the election                      6%

                  Not Sure                                                           29%

                  Refused                                                            <1%

 

 

In a different match-up, if the race were between Democrat Kathleen Falk and Republican J.B. Van Hollen, would you be more likely to vote for Democrat Kathleen Falk, Republican J.B. Van Hollen, or an independent/third party candidate?

 

                  Democrat Kathleen Falk                                37%

                  Republican J.B. Van Hollen                           21%

                  Independent/Third Party                                7%

                  I do not plan to vote in the election                      6%

                  Not Sure                                                           30%

                  Refused                                                            <1%

 


Most Important Problem Facing the State of Wisconsin

 

Please tell me what you feel is the most important problem facing the State of Wisconsin? (Please probe for specifics)

 

Note: While the percentages may be the same for more than one issue due to rounding, the issues were ranked according to number of responses. For example, while “politics” and “gas prices” had the same percentage due to rounding, “politics” actually had more respondent comments than “gas prices” did.

 

1.      Taxes   ................................................................................... 21%

2.      Economy & Jobs..................................................................... 15%

3.      Education................................................................................ 12%

4.      Health Care............................................................................. 10%

5.      Government Ethics................................................................... 7%

6.      Gas/Energy Prices................................................................... 7%

7.      Government Budget & Spending.............................................. 5%

8.      Crime   ................................................................................... 3%

9.      Environment............................................................................ 2%

10.  Immigration............................................................................. 2%

11.  Other social welfare issues....................................................... 2%

12.  Opposed to Gay Marriage ban................................................ 1%

13.  Iraq      ................................................................................... 1%

14.  Racism ................................................................................... 1%

 

Other   (each had less than 1% of respondents)........................ 4%

No Problems/Good................................................................. <1%

Not Sure................................................................................. 6%

Refused/No Opinion................................................................ 1%

 

 

Taxes & Budget

Education

Economy & Jobs

Health Care

Environment

Welfare Issues

Crime/ Drugs

Gas Prices

Gov't Ethics

Oct-94

21%

-

7

3

1

21

27

NA

NA

Oct-95

21%

5

5

5

2

14

15

NA

NA

Oct-96

14%

7

11

2

1

15

16

NA

NA

Oct-97

18%

12

5

2

5

10

15

NA

NA

Oct-98

30%

11

5

2

2

6

7

NA

NA

Oct-99

29%

20

6

4

3

5

9

NA

NA

Oct-00

26%

13

13

8

7

5

4

NA

NA

Mar-02

51%

14

7

1

2

3

1

0

5

Oct-02

49%

11

13

4

<1

<1

3

0

8

Mar-03

54%

10

20

4

<1

1

1

<1

2

Mar-04

30%

9

32

4

1

1

3

<1

4

Apr-05

40%

15

15

8

3

<1

4

3

2

Nov-05

29%

9

14

6

3

1

5

6

6

Mar-06

26%

12

15

10

2

2

3

7

7

 


Personal Financial Outlook

 

Do you expect that at this time NEXT year you will be financially better off than now, or worse off than now?

 

                        Better off than now...................................................... 45%

                        Worse off than now...................................................... 25%

                        Same (volunteered)...................................................... 24%

                        Not Sure...................................................................... 5%

                        Refused / NA.............................................................. 0%

 

 

Better

Same

Worse

Oct-94

50%

31%

15%

Oct-95

46%

21%

26%

Oct-96

56%

19%

15%

Oct-97

54%

25%

14%

Oct-98

56%

21%

17%

Oct-99

63%

15%

20%

Oct-00

64%

20%

9%

Mar-02

54%

22%

15%

Oct-02

56%

13%

22%

Mar-03

53%

17%

26%

Oct-03

57%

14%

22%

Apr-04

57%

19%

16%

Apr-05

42%

25%

29%

Oct-05

40%

18%

38%

Apr-06

45%

25%

24%

Median

54%

20%

20%

 

Wisconsin Survey History – Percentage of Respondents Who Felt They Would Be Better off Financially in the Next Year



 

Better

Worse

Same

Democrats

33%

29%

33%

Republicans

63%

17%

17%

Independents

38%

26%

29%

Other Party

44%

28%

16%

Age

 

 

 

18-24

81%

14%

5%

25-34

78%

8%

8%

35-44

57%

22%

16%

45-54

58%

17%

21%

55-64

37%

34%

26%

65+

17%

34%

43%

Education

 

 

 

< High School

10%

60%

20%

High School

38%

27%

27%

Some College /Tech Degree

44%

31%

21%

College Grad

56%

20%

22%

Graduate Degree

50%

12%

31%

Income

 

 

 

<$15,000/year

29%

45%

26%

$15,000-$25,000

30%

38%

24%

$26,000-$35,000

38%

28%

25%

$36,000-$50,000

43%

26%

26%

$51,000-$75,000

53%

22%

24%

$76,000-$100,000

55%

17%

29%

>$100,000

75%

6%

17%